The Expanded Resource Curse

Ross’ Resource Curse:

Presence of finite resources = CONFLICT AND CIVIL WAR

Expanded Resource Curse:

Lasting ethnic grievance + Presence of finite resources

[+ any reinforcing variable(s) (western influence, population growth, unstable government)] =

ENTRENCHED CONFLICT

In this paper, I will argue that Ross’ resource curse, described in his article “Natural Resource curse: How Wealth Can Make You Poor,” is too narrow. The linkage between the presence of and dependence on natural resources and violence is much more complex than he suggests (as depicted above, in the first equation). I believe that ongoing civil war, or entrenched conflict, is first caused by a lack of attention to ethnic grievances, and then exacerbated by the presence of finite resources. The conflict becomes even more complicated and entrenched when you add any of the reinforcing variables denoted above: the presence of western influence (described by Mitchell in his book, Carbon Democracy), unchecked population growth, and a weak, unstable government.

It cannot be mere coincidence that of all the conflicts and civil wars being waged today, most are in resource-rich countries. In fact, Ross depicts this in Table 2.1, called “Civil Wars Linked to Resource Wealth, 1990-2002” on page 18 of his chapter. Yet looking through the list, which includes countries such as Afghanistan, Cambodia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and Myanmar, it also cannot be a coincidence that of these conflicts, all are rooted in deep civil inequalities and/or ethnic grievances. The majority of civil wars did not start over competition on access and control of natural resources, but rather over persisting social and ethnic inequalities, which boiled over to the point of sparking conflict. Natural resources were used as a means to fuel that conflict. The longer these conflicts persist, and the social and ethnic inequalities remain unaddressed, the more these conflicts pose a threat to the development of the country.

The variables that I believe most reinforce a conflict, besides the presence of finite natural resources, are the influence of western industry, unchecked population growth, and an unstable or corrupt government. We all read Mitchell’s critique of the resource curse, and how he believes that it is too often blamed on the producer states that depend on its income, and not on the processes by which the world obtains its energy. Western oil companies come in, maneuver access to resources and win profits, consequently affecting the producer country.

Population growth also adds another stressor to an already precarious situation. The world’s population as of July 2014 was approximated at around 7.1 billion people. Many population projections have estimated that the world’s population will increase to approximately 9 billion people by the year 2050, which is only 36 years from now. As conflicts escalate, fueled by natural resources, population growth will serve to exacerbate the issue by giving a sense of urgency. If there is fighting going on right now over control of resources, with more people, this competition will only become heightened.

Unstable governments also reinforce entrenched conflict. Corrupt and unaccountable governments tend to place the interests of the state and its officials above those of its people. These governments do not enforce regulations to try and establish property rights, in such cases, temptations arise to establish property rights by force, triggering more conflict. Furthermore, as is the case in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, honest wood sector companies see little point in involving themselves in such an economically and politically unpromising environment, leaving way for dishonest, aggressive companies. With a broad leeway to operate as they will, these operators find this environment attractive for quick profits, destabilizing the system even further.

The three variables explained above serve as reinforces to conflict, but are not necessary for conflict to occur. If ethnic grievances and social inequalities are taking place in a country or region high in resources, that alone is enough to spark conflict. Yet, the presence of the reinforcing variables have the ability to change the nature of the conflict from type 1, to type 2 (see below, Baker, et al. 2003), e.g. from a conflict that is fueled by natural resources, to a conflict over natural resources.

Type 1: Combatants harvest and sell finite resources to obtain weapons and other means of war (conflict FUELED BY natural resources)

Type 2: Resource harvesting proceeds in a way that leads to competition among user groups over remaining resources, which ends in conflict (conflict OVER resources)

I believe that the resource curse began because of a lack of attention to ethnic grievances, which happened to occur in resource-rich countries. Yet the presence of reinforcing variables has the ability to entrench a conflict deeper, and transform the conflict into one more characteristic of Ross’ “resource curse.”

Baker, M., Clausen, R., et al. “Conflict Timber: Dimensions of the Problem in Asia and Africa” USAID: Biodiversity and Sustainable Forestry, v. 3. May 2003. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTINSPECTIONPANEL/Resources/Annex25.pdf